Crypto Markets: Bitcoin Tests Support

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(December 16 Edition)

2025 has been a reminder that markets do not move in straight lines. Stocks have quietly kept grinding higher, with the S&P 500 up 16.3% and the Nasdaq leading the way at 21.7%, but the real standout has been gold. Up roughly 60% on the year, gold has taken its role as the safe haven seriously, especially as uncertainty lingers. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has struggled, sitting slightly negative at around a 2 to 3% loss for the year. That gap has gotten so wide that on Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin outperforming gold by the end of 2025 have dropped below 1%. It is a sharp contrast to the usual narrative and a good reminder that even the most hyped assets go through periods of underperformance, while the “boring” ones can quietly steal the spotlight.

Sentiment around Bitcoin has cooled further, with the odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by year end now falling below 10%. On the charts, the $83K level is shaping up as the next key support, while a move back above $88K would be needed to signal renewed strength. Markets are now focused on U.S. unemployment and payroll data set to be released this morning, which could play a key role in shaping near term expectations. With key macro data ahead and uncertainty still elevated, increased volatility across risk assets should be expected.

This week marked a quiet but meaningful shift in the betting world as Polymarket officially surpassed both FanDuel and DraftKings in activity. What makes this moment interesting is not just the numbers, but what it signals about user behavior. More people are turning to prediction markets to express real opinions on outcomes across politics, sports, and markets, rather than placing traditional bets with fixed odds. Polymarket feels more like a live consensus engine than a sportsbook, and that shift in mindset is starting to show.

It is another example of how crypto native platforms are moving from niche experiments into serious competitors, often faster than many expect.

Big banks are taking another clear step toward crypto going mainstream. This week, Coinbase’s CEO shared that several major US banks are actively partnering with Coinbase on crypto pilot programs, exploring how to safely offer Bitcoin and other digital assets to their customers. At the same time, US banks are now officially allowed to buy and sell Bitcoin, removing a long standing regulatory gray area. This matters because it shifts crypto from something banks cautiously watched on the sidelines to something they can directly interact with.

It is a strong signal that crypto is becoming part of the traditional financial system, not replacing it overnight, but slowly weaving itself into how money already moves.

Markets don’t wait — and year-end waits even less.

In the final stretch, money rotates, funds window-dress, tax-loss selling meets bottom-fishing, and “Santa Rally” chatter turns into real tape. Most people notice after the move.

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Ripple hit a major milestone this week that feels bigger than just another crypto headline. CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that Ripple has received conditional approval from the US OCC to charter Ripple National Trust Bank, a move that brings the company one step closer to operating within the traditional US banking system. At the same time, institutional interest in XRP continues to grow, with ETF clients buying $20.17 million worth of XRP, pushing total ETF held assets to $1.18 billion.

Put simply, this is what crypto growing up looks like. Ripple is not just talking about real world use and regulation anymore, it is actively stepping into it, while large investors quietly keep adding exposure in the background.

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate cut this week, a move that Polymarket users had already priced in ahead of time. That accuracy is becoming a trend, with prediction markets increasingly signaling outcomes before they happen. At the same time, attention is shifting to who may lead the Fed next. The odds of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair have jumped to 41%, making him a serious contender in the eyes of the market. That is especially notable in crypto circles, since Warsh has previously been affiliated with Coinbase. Taken together, it shows how closely traditional monetary policy, prediction markets, and crypto are starting to intersect in real time.

US regulators are starting to take a more practical approach to crypto. This week, the CFTC Chair outlined a limited pilot program that would allow Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in certain regulated markets. In simple terms, this means major crypto assets could be temporarily posted as financial backing, similar to how cash or Treasury bills are used today. While the program is narrow and controlled, it is an important test. If it works, it opens the door for crypto to play a real role in traditional market infrastructure, not just as something people trade, but as something institutions can actually rely on.